- Analyst sees 60% chance of May approval amid SEC delays.
- May 23 holds a key decision window for spot Ethereum ETFs.
- SEC’s approach, filings, and clues shape Ethereum ETF outlook.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart projects a 60% chance of spot Ethereum ETF approval in May. Despite recent SEC delays on BlackRock and Grayscale proposals, Seyffart eyes May 23 as a crucial date for potential approval. He notes that while delays are expected, the SEC’s decision is likely to align with this deadline.
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The SEC, having recently approved several bitcoin ETFs, faces decisions on ETFs from BlackRock, Grayscale, Ark 21Shares, and VanEck. Seyffart anticipates a favorable outcome, but acknowledges the SEC’s ability to employ various means to potentially postpone the decision.
May 23 marks the 240-day window for the SEC to decide on Ark/21Shares and VanEck proposals. Seyffart emphasizes a base case probability of around 60% for approval on this date. If not, he suggests attention will shift to 2025.
Grayscale, in line with its bitcoin ETF strategy, aims to convert the Grayscale Ethereum Trust into an ETF, eyeing a summer 2024 SEC decision. Seyffart suggests a possible extension of the SEC’s Ethereum learning curve compared to bitcoin.
While Seyffart remains optimistic, he notes caution is warranted, especially considering the nuances involved. Johnsson, from Van Buren Capital, cites the existence of ether futures ETFs as a positive factor for potential approval.
As May approaches, Seyffart anticipates clues from filings and responses, indicating the SEC’s stance. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce emphasizes applying precedent to spot Ethereum decisions and expresses the SEC’s commitment to a fair approach.
Seyffart draws parallels to the spot bitcoin ETF race in July of the previous year, highlighting the uncertainty and evolving dynamics. As the crypto community awaits the SEC’s decision, all eyes are on May 23 for potential developments in the spot Ethereum ETF saga.
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