Indicator Says BTC Rally May Come Earlier Than Expected

  1. The market is generally bearish and people may expect greater volatility in the coming weeks.
  2. If $20,000 support fails, the next range to watch out for is $18,000-$18,900.
  3. Bitcoin is nearing the Disbelief phase, which usually sparks a big rally.

The crypto market is once again under panic as Bitcoin (BTC) and other leading altcoins have slid down key support areas. These were fueled by an endless barrage of negative news coming from the US.

Particularly, Binance US’ acquisition of Voyager has met solid resistance from regulators including the SEC and the US Department of Justice. This is despite the New York judge’s decision to allow the acquisition deal.

Now, BTC bulls are exerting herculean efforts to protect the $20,000 support at all costs. This was displayed for all to see yesterday when BTC dipped to $19,000 before recovering to about $20,300. At the time of writing, BTC is changing hands at $20,463.59, according to CoinGecko.

The coming days are very critical for BTC, as a number of factors — both bullish and bearish — are at play. On the bearish side, the prevailing market sentiment is fear.

Retail Capitulation vs Whale Buys

This is because many long-time BTC holders are panic-selling their BTC. In detail, a Redditor shared that long-term capitulation is at a record high since the infamous FTX collapse. He then proceeded to share a chart from Glassnode.

On the other hand, BTC whales continue accumulating despite the highs and lows of the market.

According to Santiment, addresses holding at least 10 BTC have collectively purchased bitcoins worth $821.5 million at a discount. Hence, the selloff came from retail bitcoin holders who are caving in to the FUD and regulatory pressure from the US. 

Disbelief Phase May Come Soon

BTC/USDT 1-day chart (source: TradingView)

As seen from the macro perspective above, BTC is getting closer to the Disbelief phase. For those who are not familiar with market cycle psychologies, Disbelief is the phase that usually sparks the rally of an asset. May traders who rely on technical analysis respect market psychologies because they have proven their effectiveness time and time again.

However, CNL reported a couple of days ago that there is a possibility that BTC may retreat to $18,000 should bulls fail to hold the line at $20,000 in the coming days. If the $20,000 support fails, the next strong support level to watch out for is $18,900.

Investors who want to buy bitcoin today need to take extra caution as BTC will have more volatility in the short-term scenario. But as described above, the much-awaited rally may come sooner than what many expect — which is from mid-2024 to 2025.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions in this article belong to the writer alone and they do not necessarily reflect the position of CryptoNewsLand (CNL). No information in this article, whether express or implied, should be taken as financial advice. Remember that investing in cryptocurrency poses significant risks to your asset. Hence, CNL strongly recommends all readers to perform their own in-depth research before investing in cryptocurrency.

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Jesus covers news related to the crypto space in Asia and in Australia, although he follows the latest events in the US and Europe as well. He is most interested in the blockchain gaming and regulation aspects of the industry.