- Ethereum holds above major EMAs as ETF inflows reach $1.85B and MVRV turns positive.
- A potential bull flag forms near resistance, but ETH needs breakout confirmation.
- Strong jobs data, higher rate expectations, and whale selling could pressure Ethereum.
Ethereum — ETH, faces a crucial test after climbing to $2,546 earlier this week. ETH has since pulled back toward $2,400 as traders reassess risk. Strong US jobs data has increased pressure across risk markets. Still, Ethereum retains several bullish signals beneath the recent weakness. Spot ETF inflows remain strong, while MVRV has returned above 1.00. A potential bull flag also adds another bullish angle. Traders now await confirmation before positioning for a fresh breakout.
Strong Jobs Data Puts Pressure on Ethereum
Ethereum traded around $2,438 at the time of writing. The retreat followed stronger-than-expected US employment data. August Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 162,000, beating the 56,000 consensus estimate. July payroll growth stood at only 21,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. Labor force participation also edged higher to 61.6%. The strong report changed expectations around Federal Reserve policy. CME FedWatch data showed a 60% chance of rates reaching 3.75% to 4%.
The previous reading stood at 49%. Higher rate expectations can weigh on speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies. Traders may therefore remain cautious near major resistance. ETH still holds above several important exponential moving averages. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs sit between $2,069 and $2,175. That alignment gives bulls a solid technical foundation. However, momentum indicators now show some caution.
Daily RSI sits at 61, leaving room for further gains. Meanwhile, MACD has turned negative as bullish momentum loses strength. Whale activity adds another concern for Ethereum traders. A major wallet sold 167,855 ETH worth roughly $408 million. The wallet moved funds toward OKX, Binance, and Bybit. Around 70,739 ETH had reached exchanges during reporting. Another 97,115 ETH remained in the wallet.
ETF Demand Supports the Bull Flag Setup
Ethereum still has strong support from institutional demand. Spot Ether ETFs attracted $148 million in inflows on Thursday. Cumulative inflows have now reached $13 billion. Net assets under management stand near $16 billion. Monthly inflows also accelerated during recent months.
July recorded $365 million in ETF inflows. August delivered a much stronger $1.85 billion. September has already recorded another $104 million. Persistent ETF demand could help absorb selling pressure. On-chain data offers another encouraging signal. Ethereum’s MVRV ratio moved above 1.00 on August 21.
The move ended a 200-day period below that level. Average ETH holders now sit in unrealized profit. Ethereum’s realized price currently sits near $2,300. Technical analyst Aksel Kibar sees another bullish possibility. Kibar suggested that ETH/USD may be forming a bull flag near resistance. He highlighted the tight consolidation around current levels.
