- Miners’ NUPL at 0.5 indicates a neutral to optimistic market phase, suggesting price stabilization and healthy conditions.
- Bitcoin’s hash rate reached 823M TH/s by January 2025, reflecting robust network security and miner activity.
- NUPL exceeding 0.75 could signify a speculative market phase and the late stages of a bull cycle.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric among miners has reached a level of 0.5. This development raises questions about market dynamics and potential trends in the ongoing cycle.
Current NUPL Level Indicates Healthy Market Conditions
Bitcoin’s price has followed a cyclical pattern, with notable peaks and corrections between 2013 and 2025. The NUPL metric oscillates between positive and negative zones, reflecting periods of profitability and losses for miners, as noted by Adel Axler.
Peaks in NUPL align with Bitcoin bull markets, while dips coincide with major corrections. Miners’ realized price has steadily increased, indicating higher average acquisition costs. Current NUPL sits near 0.5, suggesting improved miner profitability compared to prior lows during market corrections.
At 0.5, the NUPL level reflects that miners are operating with balanced profitability. This value implies that the market is currently in a neutral to slightly optimistic phase. Historically, this level has signaled that miners are neither overwhelmingly in profit nor facing significant losses. Such a balanced state often coincides with a period of market consolidation, creating opportunities for price stabilization.
Hashrate and NUPL 0.75 Threshold Implication
Bitcoin hash rate, the total computational power miners use to process transactions and secure the Bitcoin network, has shown a steady movement. According to Blockchain.com data, the Bitcoin hash rate steadily increased, surpassing 823 million terahashes per second by January 22, 2025.
The market price followed a similar upward trend, crossing $90,000. Fluctuations in hash rate and price demonstrate consistent network growth and miner activity.
Should NUPL surpass 0.75, it could signal the approach of an overheated market. This threshold historically marks the later stages of a bull cycle. When miners experience unrealized profits of this magnitude, market conditions often show increased speculative activity
