- BTC Realized Cap remains steady at $622 billion, indicating stagnation in capital inflows and outflows over the past two months.
- The Net Realized Profit/Loss metric shows equilibrium in profit and loss-taking, signaling a balanced market with minimal net capital flow.
- Stablecoin liquidity reaches near-record highs, suggesting increased buying power, but risk assets like Bitcoin remain untouched for now.
The Realized Cap, a core metric of capital netflow into Bitcoin, has plateaued at $622 billion, reflecting stagnation in both inflows and outflows. The Net Realized Profit/Loss metric shows that Bitcoin transactions balance profit and loss, indicating market equilibrium.
Profit and Loss Reach Equilibrium
According to glassnode analysis, the Net Realized Profit/Loss metric reveals equilibrium in capital flows, with marginal net movement suggesting that both profits and losses are relatively balanced.
Source: glassnodestudio
Supply Tightens as Liquidity Shrinks and Stablecoin Liquidity Surges
Stablecoins continue to lead as the preferred currency in exchanges, with the total supply nearing an ATH of $160.4 billion. This signals growing investor demand but suggests stablecoin capital is not yet rotating into riskier assets like Bitcoin. The SSR Oscillator shows increased stablecoin buying power, hinting at potential future demand growth.
Source: glassnodestudio
The ‘Hot Supply’ metric shows a constricting supply, with only 4.7% of coins held for less than a week. This indicates a reduction in short-term liquidity, pointing to a tighter supply side.
Volatility Expectations Rise and Equilibrium
According to Glassnode, as Bitcoin’s price remains in a tight range, market volatility is expected to increase. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio indicates that profit and loss-taking have slowed, reinforcing market equilibrium and signaling a possible volatility surge ahead.
The current state of the Bitcoin market is one of equilibrium and reduced activity. On the demand side, capital flows have slowed significantly, and the Realized Cap remained effectively unchanged over the last two months.
Simultaneously, the supply side is tightening, and there is a notable decline in readily available coins. However, the uptick in stablecoin supplies carries more future purchasing power, creating tension between current inactivity and potential future demand.
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