- Bitcoin dropped 26% in Q1 2025, sparking concerns about further declines.
- Past cycles saw deeper corrections, but Bitcoin’s current support level offers some stability.
- Analysts are divided; some expect a rebound, while others foresee more volatility ahead.
Bitcoin’s 26% drop in the first quarter of 2025 has left even experts scratching their heads. After reaching a high of $109K in January, the price tumbled to $74K in April—about a 30% drop. Although Bitcoin has since bounced back to $79K, the big question is whether this is just a temporary dip, or something worse is lurking ahead? Let’s dig into what Bitcoin’s past cycles tell us and where things might be heading.
BTC’s Historic Drawdowns – What Can We Learn?
Bitcoin has never been one to shy away from volatility. If we look at previous cycles, there were some really harsh drops. In 2012, 2015, and 2019, Bitcoin saw massive crashes, each time falling by more than 80%. These corrections lasted anywhere from 6 to 12 months, making for some painful periods for investors who had to watch their holdings shrink drastically.
Now, compare those major crashes to the current 30%-36% drop in 2025. While it’s certainly a big move, it’s not nearly as severe as those past crashes. But here’s the thing—Bitcoin tends to go through deep corrections before finding its bottom. If past patterns are anything to go by, this dip could just be the beginning. We might be in for more pain, especially over the next few months.
That said, this time might be a little different. Bitcoin has stronger support than l in previous cycles. For instance, the 200-week moving average now sits at $45K, which could offer a solid cushion if the price continues to fall. However, the idea of an 80% drop to $21K seems unlikely at this stage, especially with this level of support holding strong.
Are We Out of the Woods, or Is More Trouble Ahead?
Although the price of Bitcoin has dropped significantly, some experts think we may have already seen the worst of it. Bitcoin has matured a lot since its earlier cycles, and there’s a growing belief that the current drawdown won’t be as deep as the crashes of the past. Take Glassnode, for example. They’ve pointed to a potential bottom between $74K and $70K, which could mark the end of this correction.
Axel Adler, an on-chain analyst, also seems optimistic. He believes Bitcoin might have already bottomed out and is now in the accumulation phase. He points to the Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator, which shows patterns similar to those seen at the local bottom in August 2024. If history repeats, Bitcoin could be gearing up for another rally.
Even some well-known investors are betting on a rebound. Philip Swift and Stockmoney Lizards are taking advantage of the lower prices to buy more Bitcoin. But not everyone is convinced the worst is behind us. Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant isn’t fully sold on the idea that the bottom is in yet. He points out that several bullish indicators are still lagging, meaning Bitcoin could experience more downward pressure before things turn around.
