- TON’s short-term losses fell from -20% to -3.9%, showing signs of recovery.
- If short-term holders turn profitable, TON could gain strong momentum.
- A move above 0% losses may confirm a bullish trend, but risks remain.
Toncoin ($TON) is showing signs of a potential shift as short-term holders’ losses shrink significantly. According to the latest data, the rolling percentage gains for short-term holding periods—spanning one week to one month—have moved closer to neutral. While losses in mid-January exceeded -20%, they have now improved to -3.9%, suggesting a possible transition toward profitability. With this change, the market could be gearing up for a new phase, but whether it leads to a sustained recovery remains uncertain.
Short-Term Losses Drop as Market Stabilizes
That’s a significant highlight for the shift in behavior among short-term holders. Losses peaked in December of 2024 as they got over the -20% mark, as the market was down quite heavily. Since mid-January of 2025, however, the tendency has reversed, turning into declining losses over time. This indicates that short-term traders who were previously deep in the red, are seeing better conditions. Such a pattern is typically seen in previous cycles before the mindset change in the market, which means TON might witness a recovery phase soon.
One-week holders, represented in blue, have shown brief periods of profitability, while one-month holders (orange) remain slightly negative. However, the overall trajectory suggests a convergence toward neutral or positive territory. If this continues, short-term traders could begin seeing consistent gains, reinforcing bullish momentum in the market.
What This Means for TON’s Price Action
Historically, a decline in short-term losses has coincided with stronger price action. As fewer traders are selling at a loss, downward pressure on the price eases, allowing accumulation to take place. The current data suggests that TON is moving away from extreme bearish conditions and could be preparing for an upward shift.
However, for a full trend reversal, the market needs sustained buying pressure. If short-term holders transition from losses to profitability, it could trigger renewed confidence among investors. The next key threshold is whether short-term gains turn positive, which could mark the start of a strong recovery.
Key Levels to Watch
As short-term losses hover now around -3.9%; that will be a strong confirmation of changing sentiments once it crosses over to the positive range of 0%. If rolling percentage gains continue their trend upward and become stronger through time, it can suggest that more traders are actually holding TON with positive results, reaffirming bullish sentiments. When losses widen again on the downside, this might signal the market is cautious further delaying recovery.
Currently, improving losses are promising faces for TON. The trend may permit the token to experience greater price activity to possibly pave the way toward a breakout. But as it stands now, the market is still fragile, and traders should expect confirmation for a full reversal.
