- Since the last halving, Bitcoin has not established a new All-Time High (ATH), which is a deviation from the previous trend
- Peter Brandt, an analyst, notes that the price of Bitcoin made lower highs and lows, indicating a reversal of the market.
- Some of the bearish indicators for Bitcoin could be weak ETF inflows and outflows seen recently from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.
Bitcoin has been demonstrating somewhat ambiguous trends recently and has become a cause of concern for traders. In particular Peter Brandt, a well-known commodity trader, outlined several bearish patterns. Brandt is one of the most experienced classical chartists, so cryptocurrency follows his analysis closely.
He has pointed out that Bitcoin has yet to attain a new All-Time High (ATH) since the most recent halving event as it used to. As noted by Brandt, this delay in making a new ATH post halving has yet to be witnessed in previous similar cases and may be indicative of a paradigm shift in the market.
Brandt’s focus is on the bearish formation of lower highs and lows on the Bitcoin chart, suggesting that the market is losing its enthusiasm and a reversal might be near. The decreasing pattern of these lows indicates lack of market energy.
Unprecedented Post-Halving Delay
Brandt also explained that Bitcoin has yet to manage a new all-time high, many months after the last halving. In the past, the price of Bitcoin rose to new levels shortly after halving due to increased demand and less supply.
However, this time, it has taken longer to reach its peak, making Brandt refer to the current cycle as unique. He starts this cycle from the low of the preceding bear market in November 2022, a departure from prior cycles.
ETF Flows and Potential for ‘Exponential Decay’
The present market position of Bitcoin is also due to weak ETF inflows. Brandt pointed out that outflows from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF have occurred recently, contributing to bearishness. These outflows indicate that institutional investors may be turning bearish on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook, which is a negative sign for the market.
Brandt says there may be a possibility that bitcoin will begin to decay exponentially if the pace is not regained, which could reach $150,000; this is the risk investors are exposed to when investing in bitcoins.
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