- Matrixport analyst predicts SEC’s rejection of all bitcoin spot ETFs in January.
- Cascading liquidations expected if rejections occur, potentially causing a 20% BTC drop.
- Despite short-term volatility, Matrixport remains bullish on Bitcoin for 2024.
Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen has boldly asserted that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to reject all bitcoin spot ETF proposals this month. While market consensus varies, Thielen insists that these applications still lack a crucial element necessary for SEC approval.
Despite extensive discussions and updated S-1 prospectuses exchanged between applicants and the SEC in recent weeks, Thielen’s report emphasizes the persistent shortcomings that, in his view, hinder approval.
Thielen’s analysis considers political dynamics and compliance concerns. While an approved ETF could catalyze crypto adoption in the U.S., Thielen suggests that SEC Chair Gensler remains skeptical about the industry’s compliance standards.
“SEC Chair Gensler is not embracing crypto in the U.S.,” Thielen notes. “This might be fulfilled by Q2 2024, but we expect the SEC to reject all proposals in January.”
If the SEC indeed rejects bitcoin spot ETF applications this month, Thielen anticipates significant market repercussions. Cascading liquidations could occur as perpetual long bitcoin futures, involving billions of dollars, unwind. This scenario might lead to a sharp 20% drop in bitcoin’s price, revisiting the $36,000 to $38,000 range.
While acknowledging potential short-term volatility, Thielen maintains a bullish outlook for 2024. Drawing on historical patterns in U.S. election years and Bitcoin mining cycles, Matrixport predicts bitcoin’s value to surpass $42,000 by the year-end, providing a positive perspective for long-term investors amid regulatory uncertainties.
Presently, Bitcoin is trading at $42,180, and falling. Similarly, Ethereum is trading at $2,199 and falling. Other popular tokens are also experiencing a rapid plunge at the moment. These include but are not limited to BNB, Solana, XRP, ADA, LTC, INJ, and more.
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