- Despite Bitcoin nearing its ATH, altcoins lag by 80%, indicating untapped growth potential.
- Altcoin season is delayed due to high dilution, token unlocks, and low retail interest.
- Historical patterns suggest altcoins may rally post-halving, with a bull market peak projected for October 2025.
The crypto market is currently experiencing a phase of uncertainty, with many wondering whether the bull run is coming to an end. However, according to market analyst Cyclop, the bull run has not even started, particularly for altcoins.
His analysis, rooted in historical trends and current market conditions, suggests that altcoins are poised for significant growth, although the timing may still be several months away.
Current Market Dynamics
Despite Bitcoin’s significant price increase since October, altcoins have not shown similar typical movements. This discrepancy is highlighted by the fact that while Bitcoin is only about 10% below its all-time high (ATH), altcoins remain around 80% off their peaks.
Trading volumes are lower than they were during the 2021 peak, and retail investor interest, as measured by YouTube metrics and Google Trends, is significantly down.
Market Indicators and Patterns
Key market indicators reinforce the notion that altcoin season is not yet here. The number of new tokens launched, high dilution, and the overabundance of token unlocks are contributing to market saturation. These factors are creating a challenging environment for altcoins to gain traction. Furthermore, the analyst notes that historically, the peak of crypto bull runs has coincided with Coinbase becoming the top app download.
Since the collapse of FTX, only eight coins, excluding Bitcoin, have reached their all-time highs (ATH). These tokens are: RNDR, TRB, INJ, ASTR, SSV, AGIX, TWT and BNB.
Historical Parallels and Projections
Historical data from previous cycles in 2016 and 2020 indicates that Bitcoin experienced significant corrections post-halving, followed by altcoin rallies a few months later. According to Cyclop, these patterns suggest that we are still in the early stages of the cycle.
He points out that both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets lasted 370 days, and if the current cycle follows this pattern, the bull market could peak in October 2025.
Investor Sentiment and Market Behavior
Investor sentiment remains divided due to unevenly distributed returns and the disruption of familiar market structures. Typically, a Bitcoin pump is followed by Ethereum, high caps, mid/low caps, and meme coins.
However, this cycle has seen a different sequence, causing confusion among investors. Additionally, the lack of significant corrections in Bitcoin’s price has led to speculation about shorter cycles or even a super cycle.
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