• The 2-year rolling MVRV Z-Score captures Bitcoin’s major price peaks and cyclic market behavior.
  • Current analysis shows Bitcoin’s price reached $104,516.20 with $76.30B in trading volume, reflecting high market activity.
  • Mid-cycle highs are underrepresented, highlighting a focus on valuation extremes and evolving market dynamics.

Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains a critical metric for assessing market valuation extremes. Recent analysis utilizing a 2-year rolling window offers valuable insights into market trends and cyclical behavior. This refined approach highlights key patterns, including the alignment of recent peaks with historical all-time highs, while mid-cycle highs remain less conspicuous.

According to the Glassnode report, the cumulative MVRV Z-Score displays a larger structural deviation compared to the 2-year rolling window. Peaks in MVRV Z-Scores align with Bitcoin price tops, reflecting overvaluation phases. 


Source: Glassnode(X)

The 2-year rolling window adjusts for diminishing returns, smoothing trends in later market cycles. Bitcoin’s price and MVRV trends demonstrate cyclic behavior, with higher volatility earlier in its history. 

Incorporating a 2-year rolling window into MVRV Z-Score analysis reveals a clear correlation between the March 2024 all-time high and previous market cycles. The metric demonstrates its ability to flag major price peaks accurately, providing actionable data for market participants. These peaks align consistently with the broader trends observed in Bitcoin’s historical price performance, offering a reliable framework for evaluating market conditions.

Mid-Cycle Highs and Their Absence in Current Signals

While the MVRV Z-Score effectively captures major price surges, mid-cycle highs remain underrepresented in this rolling window analysis. This absence may indicate a shift in market dynamics, possibly influenced by increased institutional participation or evolving market structures. By not flagging these mid-cycle highs, the metric emphasizes its focus on significant valuation extremes rather than intermediate fluctuations.

Tracking Bitcoin Performance at the time of press, Coinglass data indicates that BTC experienced price peaks at $104,516.20 with trading volume reaching $76.30 billion. Significant spikes in volume correlate with price surges, indicating periods of high market activity. 

Source: Coinglass

Earlier in the timeline, volume and price fluctuations appear less pronounced. The chart demonstrates a gradual rise in Bitcoin’s price and volume, reflecting increased market participation and volatility in early 2025.

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Wesley Munene Posted by

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Wesley is a Crypto expert and a seasoned writer specialized in blockchain, market analysis, and digital asset management. My commitment lies in addressing market dynamics and promoting decentralized finance, let's enhance your investments and achieve your goals together