- Citi forecasts a 1.25% Fed amount cut in 2024 considering recent lower inflation.
- The Fed may continue to use tools to keep markets stable.
- Upcoming PPI data will impact the Fed’s next guidelines selections.
Citi economists continue to predict a 1.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024. They hold this view even as recent U.S. an increase in details shows signs of slowing. The latest Consumer Price Index reported a year-over-year rising price rate of 2.5%, which was lower than expected. Core CPI came in at 3.2% as predicted, showing a slowdown in cost growth. Yet Citi still expects essential rate cuts to help maintain the economy.
The Federal Reserve’s Changing Monetary Policy
Since the 2008 financial meltdown, the Federal Reserve has changed its approach to fiscal easing. The Federal Open Market Committee set a near-zero target for the governing capital fee. The Fed then bought longer-term securities to lower long-term interest cost and boost financial expansion. This strategy continued until October 2014.
In December 2015, the Fed began using overnight reverse repurchase agreements . These helped manage the federal resources speed within the FOMC’s target variety. This approach gave the Federal Reserve more versatility in managing monetary policy. It also helped keep control over interest rates.
Repo Operations and Market Stability
In September 2019, the Fed started using term and without delay repurchase agreements (repo). This was done to ensure enough reserves during times of increased non-reserve liabilities. These repo tasks were vital during the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. They helped stabilise short-term U.S. dollar funding places and ensured that financial sectors kept functioning well.
Citi’s economists believe the Federal Reserve will keep using these tools as needed. They also see the labour market as an essential factor in destiny frequency decisions. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation remains stable, which supports Citi’s careful approach.
Looking Ahead to PPI Data
Financial economies are now focused on the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The PPI for August is expected to show a slight increase of 0.2% after a 0.1% rise in July. However, Core PPI is anticipated to drop partially to 0.2% from July’s 0.3%. These numbers are probably to influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions in the coming months.
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