- Bitcoin’s price growth mirrors the 2015-2018 cycle, suggesting a potential bull run ahead.
- Shallow pullbacks and rising institutional interest indicate strong demand, supporting sustained market growth.
- Bitcoin’s shift to institutional custodial wallets hints at structural changes, signaling possible future expansion.
Bitcoin’s price growth has slowed, but recent reports suggest a potential bull run. Experts are comparing today’s market to the 2015-2018 cycle. These comparisons highlight key patterns that point to another growth phase. Rising institutional interest, shallow pullbacks, and maturing market signals all suggest the possibility of a rally. Could Bitcoin be preparing for explosive growth again?
Similarities to the 2015-2018 Cycle
Price appreciation has slowed, but this is expected. Bitcoin now needs more capital to move the crypto market. As a result, growth has become slower. However, pullbacks remain shallow, typically between 10.1% and 23.6%. This mirrors the 2015-2017 cycle, where demand kept Bitcoin’s price on an upward trajectory. Institutional interest continues to rise, supporting the market’s steady demand.
Bitcoin’s Realized Cap also offers clues about market maturity. During earlier cycles, growth ratios were much higher. For example, in the 2011-2015 cycle, Realized Cap surged by 122x. Today, growth is slower, with the Realized Cap growing by 2.1x. This suggests Bitcoin is transitioning to a more capital-intensive market. As the market moves into a euphoric phase, sharp growth could follow.
Sell-side Pressure and Investor Behavior
Tracking the long-term to short-term holder supply ratio can show if investors are accumulating or selling. A rising ratio means more coins are held, indicating HODLing behavior. A decline in the ratio suggests more selling. The 2023–2025 cycle has seen two distribution phases, similar to those in early 2021 and late 2017.
These distribution phases were followed by price rallies, showing that reduced sell-side pressure can fuel bullish momentum. Since July 2024, Bitcoin exchange balances have dropped from 3.1 million BTC to 2.7 million BTC. This shift shows a structural change in the market.
Most of this decline is due to Bitcoin moving into institutional custodial wallets, especially following the approval of Spot ETFs. While exchange balances are lower, the actual supply for trading may not be as limited. This points to a structural shift, which could signal growth ahead.
