- Bitcoin’s risk indicator at 0.453 suggests the market is neither overly bullish nor bearish.
- Historical data shows low risk aligns with buying zones and high risk with market tops.
- Key support at $25K and resistance at $40K will determine Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin’s historical price-metric risk chart, shared by Benjamin Cowen, reveals a fascinating relationship between price movements and risk metrics. As of February 2025, the Price-Metric Risk Indicator stands at 0.453, marking a mid-range risk level.
Historically, this level has often been a precursor to either substantial price rallies or corrective phases, depending on broader market sentiment. The blue line on the chart represents Bitcoin’s price, while the red line tracks various risk metrics, including regression risk, fear and greed risk, and running ROI risk.
The cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s risk metrics is evident, with peaks aligning closely with market tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021, and troughs coinciding with accumulation phases. The current level suggests Bitcoin is not in extreme greed or fear territory, leaving room for potential upward movement, though caution remains necessary.
Historical Patterns Suggest Cyclical Trends
BTC historical data shows that periods of high risk (above .8) align with tops, such as 2013’s $1,100, 2017’s $20,000, and 2021’s $69,000 peaks. Conversely, low-risk zones correspond with buildup periods, such as in 2015, 2018, and 2022, when costs traded near $200, $3,000, and $16,000 respectively.
Currently, with the risk indicator at 0.453, Bitcoin sits in a transitional phase, suggesting the market is neither overheated nor overly fearful. This middle-ground position indicates a balanced risk-reward scenario, where prices could trend higher toward the next resistance, or pull back to retest recent lows.
What This Means for Bitcoin Investors
The Cowen Corridor Risk, another layer of the indicator, emphasizes that Bitcoin is still within a healthy price growth channel, leaving room for future appreciation. However, the absence of extreme risk levels does not guarantee immediate price movement. Investors should focus on key support levels near $25,000 and resistance levels near $40,000, which align with historical regression trends.
The interplay between fear and greed risk, as shown in the chart, further highlights that market sentiment remains neutral, reducing the likelihood of extreme volatility in the near term. This positions Bitcoin as a relatively stable asset within the volatile cryptocurrency space, at least temporarily.
Benjamin Cowen’s Analysis: A Balanced Outlook
Benjamin Cowen’s expertise shines through in his presentation of the risk chart, emphasizing the importance of understanding cyclical trends. He notes that the current 0.453 risk level provides both opportunities and challenges for investors. Cowen suggests watching for signs of rising greed or fear, as these are likely to dictate Bitcoin’s next major move.
As Bitcoin navigates this balanced phase, traders and long-term investors alike must remain vigilant. The risk indicator provides valuable context, but the market’s unpredictable nature means adaptability will be key.
