- TOTAL3’s breakout signals a trend shift, but holding above support is crucial for confirming bullish momentum.
- A move past $940B could trigger an altcoin rally, while dropping below $860B risks a deeper correction.
- Historical cycles suggest a major altseason in 2025–2026, with liquidity shifts and Bitcoin halvings shaping the market.
Moustache claims that after regaining a trendline, the altcoin market is exhibiting indications of a possible trend reversal. A resistance level was just broken by TOTAL3, which measures the total market capitalization of altcoins other than Bitcoin and Ethereum. Strong volume at the breakout suggested that there was buying interest. The market is currently in a crucial retest phase that could validate ongoing bullish momentum.
Source: Moustache
A major support zone, tested multiple times, lies below the current price level. The market briefly dipped into this zone before rebounding sharply. Moreover, the breakout above the descending trendline suggests a shift in sentiment. However, price action remains uncertain as resistance levels continue to challenge further upside.
Retest Phase and Key Resistance Levels
Following the breakout, the market faced immediate resistance and retraced to the breakout level. This zone, marked by a yellow circle, now serves as a potential support. If the price holds above it, further gains may follow. Otherwise, a failure to maintain support could push the market back into a lower range.
The next resistance lies near $940 billion, where price rejection previously occurred. If altcoins break past this level, they may experience a strong rally. Conversely, a breakdown below $860 billion could invalidate the bullish structure, leading to a deeper correction.
Altcoin Market Cycles and Future Outlook
According to Merjin, Historical data suggests that altcoins follow a four-year cycle. The 2017–2018 and 2021–2022 altcoin seasons were both characterized by notable price spikes. With Altseason 3.0 anticipated in 2025–2026, the most recent chart analysis suggests that another cycle might be beginning.
Source: Merlijn
The market follows a long-term ascending channel, with higher highs and higher lows forming over time. If the pattern continues, altcoins could see another major rally. However, resistance levels must be broken before confirming this trend.
Liquidity shifts and Bitcoin halvings play a key role in shaping these cycles. A successful retest of current support levels may drive the next phase of altcoin dominance. Traders should watch for continued buying pressure, as it could signal further upward movement.
