- About 11.2 million Bitcoin remain in profit, nearing previous bear market low levels.
- Roughly 8.2 million Bitcoin sit at a loss, signaling potential early bear market stress.
- Market recovery depends on weaker US dollar yields and easing macroeconomic pressures in 2026–2027.
Bitcoin — BTC, is showing signs of pressure as profit and loss supply metrics move closer to historic bear market ranges. Market data from CryptoQuant and Glassnode highlights shifting holder positions as BTC prices remain below cycle highs. Analysts debate whether these signals suggest undervaluation or rising stress, but the figures indicate that the market is approaching levels last seen during previous market bottoms, making this a critical moment for investors.
Supply Metrics Signal Caution
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported that roughly 11.2 million Bitcoin are currently in profit. He compared this to the prior bear market, where only 9 million BTC were profitable. According to him, the trend suggests that Bitcoin supply is moving toward previous bear market conditions. Glassnode data shows around 8.2 million Bitcoin sitting at a loss, compared with 10.6 million during the last bear market. Analyst Darkfost interprets this as an early sign of undervaluation similar to past cycles.
This could indicate a favorable entry point for some investors, although market behavior remains unpredictable. Analysts remain split on what the numbers actually mean for Bitcoin. Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue exchange, argued the data points to increasing market stress rather than clear undervaluation. He noted that during the 2022 bottom, supply losses exceeded 50 percent, with the supply in profit dropping below 45 percent. According to him, current readings resemble early or mid bear transition phases rather than final market lows.
Macro Factors Add Pressure
The price of Bitcoin has fallen roughly 52 percent from its cycle high, smaller than the 77 to 84 percent declines observed in previous bear markets. This shows that while the market is under pressure, it has not yet reached extreme levels. Currency trends also influence Bitcoin’s performance. Author Timothy Peterson highlighted that BTC struggles when the US dollar is strong and the Chinese yuan weak. Rising dollar yields attract capital into cash and bonds, reducing risk appetite for crypto investments.
Peterson suggested that recovery may hinge on declining US interest rates, which are unlikely to occur before late 2026 or early 2027. Investor sentiment appears cautious as supply metrics approach prior bear market ranges. While some see undervaluation opportunities, others warn of continued stress and potential consolidation. Monitoring profit and loss supply levels, alongside macroeconomic factors, remains key for understanding Bitcoin’s next moves.
For now, Bitcoin’s supply metrics are nearing historic bear market lows, signaling caution for traders. Analysts are divided between undervaluation and market stress perspectives. Macro trends, especially dollar strength, continue to influence BTC prices. Investors should watch profit and loss indicators closely as the market navigates this critical phase.
