- Bitcoin’s aNUPL at 0.4 signals steady growth, avoiding euphoria while hinting at potential price surges or temporary consolidations.
- Historical trends show Bitcoin rallies when aNUPL rises, with current sentiment in a belief zone, supporting continued bullish momentum.
- Bitcoin’s cyclical nature suggests further gains, as its price follows patterns of accumulation, optimism, and eventual euphoria.
Bitcoin’s market remains bullish without signs of overheating, according to Axel Adler Jr., a crypto analyst. Based on the adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) metric, Bitcoin is in a confidence zone but has not yet reached euphoria. The current aNUPL level of approximately 0.4 suggests a healthy market with moderate profit accumulation.
Historically, this stage precedes strong price rallies or temporary consolidations. Besides, Bitcoin’s price action aligns with cyclical sentiment patterns, reinforcing its growth potential. Consequently, under stable macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory.
Market Sentiment Remains Strong
Bitcoin’s aNUPL values indicate a bullish trend with no overheating. Historically, euphoria occurs when aNUPL reaches 0.7–0.8, often preceding market peaks. However, with the metric at 0.4, investor optimism remains moderate. Moreover, the market has seen a steady recovery since 2023, moving from unrealized losses to belief.
Source: Axel
Besides, past cycles reveal that Bitcoin’s price surges align with positive sentiment shifts. During 2016–2018, Bitcoin entered euphoria before experiencing a major correction. Similarly, the 2019–2021 rally pushed aNUPL into the belief and euphoria zones before declining in 2022. Hence, the current phase suggests potential growth while maintaining market stability.
Historical Patterns Indicate Further Growth
Bitcoin’s cyclical nature shows that market tops coincide with high aNUPL values, while downturns occur during negative aNUPL phases. The 2022 bear market saw prolonged unrealized losses, pushing sentiment into fear. However, Bitcoin rebounded in 2023, regaining positive sentiment and entering the optimism and belief zones.
A horizontal pink line at 0.4 aNUPL marks a critical sentiment level. This threshold has historically preceded market rallies or consolidation. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s price action follows a cycle of accumulation, growth, and correction, aligning with shifts in aNUPL sentiment.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s gradual uptrend in 2024 suggests an ongoing accumulation phase. As confidence builds, Bitcoin’s price could continue rising before reaching the euphoria stage. Hence, with stable macroeconomic factors, further market expansion remains likely.
