- Investor turned $5.2M LUCE profit into $335K loss after massive price crash.
- LUCE trading volume and active addresses dropped sharply between January and April 2025.
- Technical indicators and on-chain data signaled a bearish trend early on.
A crypto trader watched a massive win slip right through the fingers — about a $5.2 million unrealized gain turning into a $335,000 loss. The rollercoaster began six months ago when this investor scooped up 19.14 million LUCE tokens for $0.0275 each on October 19, 2024. By January 15, those same tokens reached a peak price of $0.315. The dream? Very much alive. Everything changed fast. LUCE’s price crashed hard—falling more than 70% in just a few months. As of April 19, the token now trades at $0.085. That’s not a dip; that’s a nosedive. And the investor? Left holding the bag, down more than $335K from the original buy-in.
From All-Time Highs to Deep Regrets
The rise was fast and wild. LUCE caught fire heading into 2025. Attention poured in. Hype built like a pressure cooker. Trading volume exploded, jumping from a daily average of 5 million tokens in December to 25 million by March 15. But the party didn’t last long. Fast-forward to April 19, and volume has collapsed to just 2 million tokens a day. That kind of drop points to fear, panic, or simply people walking away.
A few big players may have pulled the plug and sparked a massive sell-off. Whatever triggered the fall, others followed.Even neighboring altcoins felt the pressure. Tokens like GLIM and $SHINE dropped 20% and 15%, respectively, in the same week. The crypto crowd often moves as a pack—when one falls off a cliff, others usually stumble behind.
Technical Warnings Were Loud and Clear
The charts showed signs of trouble early on. The Relative Strength Index hit 78 in January—deep in overbought territory. That’s a blinking red warning. By April, the RSI dropped to 22, suggesting heavy overselling. The MACD confirmed the bad news with a bearish crossover on February 20. A few traders likely noticed. Most ignored the signs, clinging to hope instead of facts. Meanwhile, the network told a clear story.
The number of active LUCE addresses sank from 10,000 to 3,000 between January and April. Fewer users means fading interest. At the same time, the percentage of supply on exchanges shot up from 20% to 35%, hinting at serious sell pressure. While LUCE crashed, AI-related tokens like FET and AGIX gained small bumps—5% and 3% in trading volume. Some traders may have tried escaping the chaos by parking funds in AI coins.
The connection wasn’t strong, though. A −0.15 correlation between LUCE and FET suggests they moved mostly on separate tracks. Sentiment across the market also dipped slightly. The Fear & Greed Index dropped from 65 to 60 over the week, possibly due to algorithm-driven signals and cautious buyers sitting on the sidelines.
