ARK Invest’s Bitcoin Forecast: The Factors Driving the Next Bull Run

• ARK Invest’s report highlights potential factors for a Bitcoin rally, including low volatility and decreased hash rate.
• The report indicates a possible price reversal due to oversold conditions and increased ‘HODLing.’
• Regulatory concerns and macroeconomic forces, such as the Federal Reserve’s actions and Binance’s legal issues, could impact Bitcoin’s performance.

Bitcoin, the trailblazing cryptocurrency, is on the cusp of a significant shift, according to a recent analysis by ARK Invest’s David Puell. His report, “The Bitcoin Monthly: July 2023,” delves into Bitcoin’s current status and potential future. 

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Puell highlights Bitcoin’s low 90-day volatility, similar to 2017 levels, suggesting a substantial price movement is imminent. However, the direction remains uncertain.

Despite the ambiguity, the report points to Bitcoin’s decreased hash rate, indicating oversold conditions and potential undervaluation. This suggests a price reversal could be on the horizon. 

The report also notes an increase in “liveliness” as selling pressure decreases, indicating the lowest selling pressure since Q4 of 2020.

The short-term holders’ profit/loss ratio aligns with historical trend reversals, suggesting a breakout is more likely. However, the ongoing legal battle between the SEC and Binance could impact Bitcoin’s performance. 

Binance’s BNB token provides significant liquidity for other cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. If sentiments favor the SEC, it could trigger a “bank run,” causing BNB’s price to plummet and potentially impacting the entire crypto market.

While historical trends suggest a bullish trajectory for Bitcoin’s price, macroeconomic forces and regulatory concerns could pose challenges. Bitcoin breaching the resistance level at $29,450 could shape its future outlook. As Bitcoin continues to witness a downward trajectory, that resistance level might be the key to a sustained breakout or further consolidation.

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